Thingish Things

Obama Odds at 60.5%; Weiner Resigning at 47.9%

Written By: William F. B. O'Reilly - Jun• 07•11

President Obama’s bin Laden bounce in the polls is now completely gone.  That has been reported.  But it’s still interesting to see how recent events have manifested themselves in the InTrade Market, the Irish-based stock market for political predictions.  InTrade is where people wager real money on events of the day.  The odds of Anthony Weiner resigning his seat by September 30th for example, are at 47.9% at this exact moment in time. Another New York Post cover story or salacious photo might move the odds over 50%.

I have always found Intrade remarkably accurate.  It’s amazing how objective people become when money is at stake.

The Intrade chart above illustrates the Obama re-election market. Take a look at how much his share price has dropped since the bin Laden assassination.  It’s remarkable.  His number is still relatively strong, though.  The current Intrade odds of him being re-elected are 60.5%  Not bad. And the clear Republican frontrunner: Mitt Romney.

For real political junkies, InTrade is an interesting market to keep an eye on.  It can offer a concrete bettors perspective  in a swirling political environment.

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One Comment

  1. […] always found Intrade remarkably accurate,” New York-based campaign guru Bill O’Reilly wrote on his blog last June. “It’s amazing how objective people become when money is at […]

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