Thingish Things

Obama in Major Trouble

Written By: William F. B. O'Reilly - Aug• 04•11

There is a 2,800-word bombshell story in Politico this morning outlining the depth and multitude of challenges President Obama’s re-election team is facing.

These pages have touched several times over the months on this, particularly how the state-by-state nature of presidential contests lines up against President Obama in November 2012.  In short, Obama is in big trouble, and he would easily lose re-election today against Mitt Romney in particular.

Here is what Jim VandaHei and Mike Allen of Politico write about the electoral map:

All of these points meet on the electoral map, which isn’t looking great for Obama.

The country seems to hate all of Washington, where as in 2008 it was much more down on the GOP and the Bush years.

And putting aside the bleak psychological climate Obama faces as he starts his run, the physical terrain – the states needed add up to 270 electoral votes – looks more difficult than Democratic officials had expected even a few months ago. Obama’s electoral map from 2008 will be tough to duplicate, with all three perennial bellwethers – Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania – once again up for grabs.

The states Obama won in 2008 have lost six electoral votes, complicating his quest. And in most of the nine states Obama won that Sen. John F. Kerry lost in 2004 – Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, Virginia and Colorado – Democrats took a drubbing in the midterms. One poll has half the voters in Ohio down on Obama’s job performance, for instance.

Democrats say they are encouraged that the Republican governors in three critical states – Rick Scott in Florida, John Kasich in Ohio and Scott Walker in Wisconsin – have taken a hit in polls in recent months, and look like they may be less help to the Republican nominee than they would be if they were politically stronger.

Looking at Obama’s 2008 swing-state wins, Democrats have all but given up on Indiana, and know that he will have trouble keeping two other traditionally red states, Virginia and North Carolina; may have been hurt in Florida by unhappiness in the Jewish community about Obama’s handling of Israel; and will have a dogfight for the Rust Belt prizes of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan (where one respected state poll had him narrowly lagging Romney). Obama’s reelection strategy depends on running strong in the Mountain West, most critically in Colorado.

But without at least a couple of the traditional bellwether states, Obama will be a one-term president.

There is still plenty of time to go before the 2012 election, but make no mistake about it, President Obama is in trouble. 

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  1. Ann-

    Hi. I used that word just for you.



  2. Your Friend says:

    Um. The election isn’t today.

    “Peyton Manning’s Colts are behind in the first game of the new season. It looks like their Super Bowl hopes are dashed.”

    That’s what this piece sounds like. A stretch.

    A Major Stretch…

  3. Your Friend says:

    We can thank the Tea Baggers for their hand in this…

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