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Thingish Things

No Way Newt Stays on Top

Written By: William F. B. O'Reilly - Nov• 18•11

http://aandbeasymove.co.uk/wp-json/oembed/1.0/embed?url=http://aandbeasymove.co.uk/packing/ Newt Gingrich is the latest in the anyone-but-Romney bunch to skyrocket in the polls.  After hovering in single digits for months, Mr. Gingrich suddenly finds himself leading his fellow GOP contenders in at least one poll. It won’t last.

actively Yes, Mr. Gingrich is smart, too smart perhaps. And he is brash at a time when Americans thirst it. But he is not electable on a national scale. Too many Americans just don’t like or trust him.  I can think of a dozen Democrats off hand who would consider voting for Mitt Romney.  Not a single one of them would consider pulling the lever for The Newt. Ever. And to win states with a majority of Democratic voters, Republicans need crossover voters.  Obviously.  

Close your eyes and ask yourself if Mitt Romney might, theoretically, if they were to be contested, be competitive running against Barack Obama in New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Ohio, Michigan, or even – and this admittedly is a stretch – New York. The honest answer would be “yes.”  Romney could win most of those states and run competitively in all of them, theoretically. Now close your eyes and make that candidate Newt Gingrich. The idea of him putting Northeast or Midwest states – or Northwest states for that matter — into play seems preposterous. Democrats would line up for miles to vote against him – and defeat down-ballot Republicans in state after state along with him.

The fact is that Newt Gingrich cannot assemble a viable electoral map wide enough to win, and GOP party leaders know that. It’s one of the reasons Newt hovered not far above zero for so long. He will return there.  

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One Comment

  1. Your Friend says:

    Spot on. I fit into your theoretically category fairly well (although I’m more decided).

    Check out this link, with emphasis on the quoted paragraph:

    “The broader point — and one thing this evidence is fairly definitive upon — is that the rate of change is what counts. Americans will give a fair amount of credit to a president in an economy that is still below its full productive capacity provided that it seems to be getting better.”

    The R stonewallers on the (yech) “Super Committee” are doing there best to prevent the perception of anything getting better, but I also feel like they’ll be left holding the metaphorical bag.

    Happy Thanksgiving!

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/18/which-economic-indicators-best-predict-presidential-elections/

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