Thingish Things

Will Obama Come Crashing Down in November?

Written By: William F. B. O'Reilly - May• 09•12

I’ve long thought it a probability that President Obama will significantly lose re-election in November for the simple reason that he has not been a good President. That remains to be seen, but a few brave souls are emerging suggesting the same thing. ( A Texas inmate winning 41% of the vote against President Obama in the West Virginia Democratic primary last night makes the claim sound perfectly reasonable today.)

Josh Kraushaar of National Journal writes this  morning that Mr. Obama must be considered the underdog in the race, based on the sluggishness of the economy alone. He begins his column: 

This presidential election is coming down to two immutable facts that have become increasingly clear as November draws closer: President Obama will be running for a second term under a stagnant economy, and his two most significant legislative accomplishments—health care reform and a job-goosing stimulus—remain deeply unpopular. It doesn’t take a professional pundit to recognize that’s a very tough ticket for reelection.

But there is a glaring disconnect between the conventional wisdom, which still maintains that Obama has a slight edge in the electoral-map math, and the fundamentals pointing to the possibility of a decisive defeat for the president.

I agree.  But President Obama’s complete lack of focus as president is what I think will get him in the end. Every day he seems to have a new message — nine times out of 10 an attack message against Republicans — and that’s not how one wins an election. 

Indeed, Obama for America, an extremely talented political team, seems to be engaging in a complex smoke-and-mirror re-election effort to get the public’s eyes off one simple fact: There are few popular accomplishments with which they can drive a real campaign. 

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  1. Your Friend says:

    Six months later and your reasoning is still the same. Of course, from my perspective, he has done a great job. The changes to the CAFE standards alone is reason enough to support him. But then today, he came down on the right side of one of the most divisive political issue of our time. He supports gay marriage. Romney does not. This position may cost Obama the election, seeing how our country is densely populated with people in the 30 states that already have amendments making gay marriage illegal. Sometimes it’s better to be on the right side than it is to worry about the politics. I know your position on gay marriage. So, when are you going to write a long article commending Obama for his stance?

  2. I don’t think it’s an issue, D. Just posted something. Great to hear from you.

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