The Final 2008 Electoral Map

There isn’t a single state that John McCain won in 2008 in serious jeopardy of voting for President Obama in 2012. But 10 or more states that the President won in the last election conceivably could move over to the GOP column.  Six – Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire, and Indiana are likely to do so.  If those states alone vote Republican, the GOP candidate will win in 2012. That math must be keeping Team Obama up at night.

The President could lose as many as 36 states if the economy does not significantly improve.  His only rock-solid reliable states are California, Oregon, Washington, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Vermont, Rhode Island, Maine, Delaware, Maryland, Hawaii, and the District of Columbia.  Those would give him 188 electoral votes, 82 short of that 270 magic number. New Jersey would give him 14 more, but that’s not necessarily a given.

Mr. Obama will have to sweep the Midwest, including Indiana or Ohio – an extremely unlikely scenario given the 2010 results in that region – and hold onto Colorado and Nevada to win enough electoral votes to be re-elected. And every one of those states, including Wisconsin and Minnesota are going to cost him a lot of money. (Here is an interactive map to toy with.)

Candidate Obama famously employed a 50-state strategy in his Primary win over Hillary Clinton.  No way he does that in 2012.  The real race will take place in fewer than a dozen states, at least half of them surrounding the Great Lakes.  Three current Republican candidates hail from that area.  Should be interesting.