In Trade Market Chart

More than half of bettors on the Dublin-based InTrade Predictions Market are waging that a deal to raise the U.S. Federal Debt Limit will not be penned by July 31^st.  Just 40% of bettors are bullish that a deal will get done by then (that percentage dropped eight points in the three or four minutes it took to scribble this post.)

The graph above shows just how much faith in the negotiations has eroded in recent weeks. There was virtually no market back in February when more than 90% of bettors believed a deal would get done.

In Trade bettors are more sanguine long-term, though.  Seventy-percent bet a deal will be cut by August 31^st.  I bet they’re right.