http://youtu.be/X244jadVnRU

Most of you will remember this ad.  The Dukakis-Bush contest was actually close at one point, but the image of Mike Dukakis in a tank proved so incongruous that it made security-minded Americans cringe (his handlers were trying to show just the opposite — that Dukakis wasn’t weak on national defense).  It was the coup de grâce in a race where Bush had already begun pulling away.

Political campaigns are strange animals. Most of them move linearly, in purely predictable ways.  Others – at least the competitive ones – can be dramatically altered by almost imperceptible occurrences – just as typhoons, hypothetically, can be caused by the flutter of butterfly wings on the other side of the globe (although I don’t really buy that.)

But you never know which way any given campaign will play out – until it plays out.  Will this be a logical one – one where money, message, and a ground game provide the margin of victory – or will this be a crazy free-for-all where events overtake the candidates?

The closest analogy I can think of for this dynamic is the college basketball game.  Some are methodical runs up and down the court, with the team with the greater shooting percentage prevailing.  And some can hinge on a single bad call or a just-missed rim shot that deflates one team and inflates the other. Rudy Giuliani’s 2008 presidential primary strategy focusing on Florida, for example, was widely lambasted when it failed.  But it also could have worked, in which case it would have been labeled brilliant. These things come down to millimeters sometimes.

Take Congressman Anthony Weiner’s Twitter craziness.  It stopped dead in its tracks a stream of  effective messaging coming out of the Democratic National Committee on the Republicans Medicare reform plan, a pivotal national issue.  It gave Republicans a breather to adjust their messaging. Who would of thunk that a photo of someone’s underwear would dramatically change the national political conversation within a period of 48 hours? It was completely unpredictable.

I don’t know about you, but the 2012 Presidential election is unfolding as though it may become a strange one.  U.S. economic events are moving quickly; the Republican field is  uncharacteristically ethereal, and the news media moves on a dime today like never before.

Does Mike Huckabee’s decision not to run end up handing the Republican nomination to Mitt Romney, who in turn puts Michigan in play, which in turn pulls President Obama’s resources out of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia? That kind of thing.

This morning in the Telegraph, Nile Gardner predicts a Republican blow out in 2012, while others would bet their bottom dollar that Obama is now a shoe-in for re-election.

The truth is anything can happen, and my gut tells me anything might.

http://youtu.be/3ujaix6ya54

Here’s an ad from President Carter’s successful ’76 campaign.  As with virtually all his spots, Carter is portrayed as the populist candidate — he is jacket-less, humble, and made to look as though he is speaking off-the-cuff to a small audience, which is never shown (contrast that to the Obama stadium rally images three decades later.)  This feel-your-pain, common-man touch got him elected.  But it didn’t fly in ’80 when Reagan eclipsed him with a message of hope.

*via votocracy

Great ironies are playing out in Washington over congressman Paul Ryan’s (R-Wisconsin) call to reform entitlement programs.   Conservatives, including Ryan, are arguing that the wealthiest Americans should see deep cuts in their Social Security and Medicare benefits — or outright elimination of them — while Democrats are arguing that even the richest of the rich should receive their share of those programs. Even socialist congressman Bernie Sanders (S-VT) is in on the act, defending the wealthy against “entitlement” cuts.

This is a healthy conversation, and it’s getting more interesting by the day.

Congressman Weiner is in a pickle.  And I don’t mean that to be metaphoric.  He is in an indefensible position.

The New York Post and others are demanding that he go to law enforcement to report the said “hacker” of his Twitter account — the one who Weiner says sent an explicit photo to a 21-year-old girl–and 40,000 other people–under his signature.  But Weiner cannot. Not if he’s guilty.

The problem is not that the FBI or Capitol Police would uncover evidence that Weiner sent the tweet himself — although they probably would — it’s that by going to law enforcement and reporting “a crime” he knows is false, Weiner would be committing a felony.  He  could go to jail. So, if he sent the tweet himself, there is no way he goes to the police or FBI.

Weiner’s only option under that scenario is to go to the wall and engage in the kind of crisis communications tactics we saw yesterday until the news cycle eventually blows over.  No one is praying for a major news event right now more than Anthony Weiner.

He may very well survive this as a congressman.  But his dreams of being mayor are all but over.  Not when headlines employing the word “creep” are associated with his name.  Not by a long shot.

http://youtu.be/PU0nNAXDIuc

The 2012 presidential campaign has hardly begun, but I thought it might be instructive and entertaining to post some classic presidential televisions ads on this site going forward.  This 60-second ad is from the successful Nixon-Agnew ’68 campaign.

Comments welcome.

The situation involving Congressman Anthony Weiner (D-Brooklyn) has big implications for the 2013 New York City mayoral race. Weiner, the front runner for the Democratic nomination for mayor, is now “clamming up,”  according to news reports. He refuses to say why he won’t ask law enforcement to look into the alleged “Twitter” hack over the weekend that sent an explicit photo of a male body part from Weiner’s account to more than 40,000 people.  This just-aired MSNBC interview suggests that this issue ain’t going away soon.

Weiner is enough of a PR pro to know that his current line of defense isn’t cutting it. I would expect a new tune out of the congressman’s office within a day or two.  Or will he go to the grave with his story?

Either way, this will badly damage his 2013 political ambitions — unless he can unequivocally prove his innocence in the matter. And that will require an investigation by the FBI.

The choice is his.

UPDATE: This news video of Rep. Weiner this afternoon pretty much says it all.  He is now in full crisis mode — showing extraordinary discipline though.  But judge for yourself. Does he sound guilty to you?

I am loath to write more about the silly Anthony Weiner situation — I could care less whether he Tweeted racy pictures of himself or not — but in accusing political enemies of hacking his account in an attempt to “distract” him from his good work in Washington, the Brooklyn congressman and his staff have elevated this weekend’s controversy to a legitimate issue of public concern.

If a political enemy of the congressman is Tweeting obscene photographs under his name, then the FBI has an obligation to look into the matter. This is a member of the United States Congress we are talking about. Hacking his account would be a serious matter.

But Weiner doesn’t want law enforcement involved. That’s curious. Why would he not?

Accusations brought by Congressman Weiner, his staff, and supporters demand an inquiry by law enforcement.  A quick forensic analysis of his account and computer should identity from where the tweet in question emanated.

Congress Member Weiner explains the bi-directional nature of Twitter

“Weinergate” is much in the news today.  In case you’ve somehow missed it, the thin-skinned New York congressman Anthony Weiner (D-Brooklyn) is denying that a shot of his — it’s just too easy — was sent transnationally this weekend to a 21-year-old Washington State college student whom Weiner, for some inexplicable reason, follows on Twitter.

I would be more than willing to take Weiner at his word, but a.) He would be on this like white on rice if it were happening to a Republican, and b.) His responses have been rolling out like a well-oiled crisis communications campaign.  Today, he announced that he has hired a lawyer — but not asked the FBI — to investigate the alleged hack of his account, which he was on at the time of the alleged offense.  And, like from a PR textbook, he is enlisting the support of “third-party verifiers” like Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY), though what Schumer is supposed to verify is a mystery. Presumably there will be no line-up.

I really would be willing to take Weiner at his word — it probably was a hacker — but I am fascinated by the show he is putting on.   Let’s wait and see if he calls in the FBI, which would be perfectly appropriate if, indeed, a member of Congress is being impersonated online.

When did everyone riding a bike start looking like they are trying out for the Tour de France?

It’s embarrassing.  For everyone. It needs to stop.

This afternoon my 14-year-old daughter burst out laughing as we drove past a 50-something-year-old man head-to-toe in sheer yellow…stretchy-stuff.  He had on wrap-around mirrored sunglasses that made him look like LaVar Burton in Star Trek: The Next Generation and an aerodynamic helmet that must have been designed by NASA — it went half way down his back.  Every piece of his clothing – if you can call it that – had brand names sprawled across it.  Are we to think he has sponsors?

LaVar Burton in Star Trek

Mr. Yellow was the not the only we passed.  There was Mr. Red and Mr. Orange, Mr. Neon-Green, and several old guys who can only be described as wearing tropical fruit colors.  All in that same stretchy stuff; all sporting, as the Brits might say, forlorn “kits” that should make each of them ashamed to be part of the male fraternity.  They may as well be biking in Speedos. (Just because everyone is wearing them doesn’t make it okay – ever.)

“I’m 14.  I’m the one who’s supposed to be going through my awkward phase,” my daughter alertly noted. “I mean, what’s up with these guys? They’re like accountants, right?”

I’ve heard all the arguments: wind resistance, no loose clothing to get caught in gears, muscle support, visibility to cars, yada, yada yada.  For God’s sake it’s a bicycle. And while we’re at it, what did you do with that kick stand?  You know you miss it.

Women “cyclists” wear these get ups, too, of course, but there is an admitted double standard on this one.  They look sexy in stretchy stuff.  Men look ridiculous.  Will someone please officially tell them it’s not okay?

Doesn’t anyone just goes bike riding anymore?